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US Economic Outlook 2025
With the 2024 election in the rear view mirror, we have a better picture of what policy for the next few years is going to look like. As such, we have a better idea on what to expect from the US economy over the next few years. That has largely colored my analysis this year.…
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U.S. Economic Outlook 2024
The U.S. economy is actually in a pretty good shape. Read about what my model predicts will happen over the next 24 months. A recession is unlikely, over the next 2 years, but if one does happen, it probably won’t be too bad.
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Forecasting the Economy
So far on this blog, I have mainly focused on machine learning, and models of events that are driven by econometrics. But the truth is that I am an economist (with a doctorate). As such, I get asked all of the time about where I think that the economy is going (especially recently). That seems…
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Quantile Regression in Python
So I wanted to write a little tutorial on quantile regression. What it is and how it works. Then I wanted to show you how to utilize it to great effect within python. This is one of my favorite statistical models, and I feel like it is very underutilized. So do refer back to this…
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Reading Data Into Pandas
You know, usually, I sit here and I just take things for granted. I can import data into pandas to be manipulated. It is something that just is. Well, here’s the thing. Somebody wrote that code. Frankly, they are a hero. I couldn’t imagine doing my job without pandas and if I had to jump…
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The Central Limit Theorem
The central limit theorem is probably the most important result in all of statistical theory. In fact, the central limit theorem makes statistics possible. It is one of those mathematical results that seem counter intuitive. Yet, if you understand it in a deep way, it kind of seems so obvious. What does the central limit…
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5 Ways to Spot a Toxic Data Culture
There are tons of ways that your organization’s data culture could turn toxic. This is a list of that won’t tell you the ways that your organization’s culture could go off the wagon, rather it is a list of the big things to watch out for. You can tell this in an interview, or you…
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Empirical Bayes By Hand And In Python
So I’m writing this little post about Empirical Bayes and how you can use it to build risk scores in python. This is a topic that is very useful for a number of disciplines. I tend to use it to look for abnormalities with incentive programs at a financial institution, but you can apply it…
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Python
This post is really about how maximum likelihood works. Most of statistics works on this principle including ARIMA models that I describe here. What is Maximum Likelihood Estimation? So your first thought is probably, what is maximum likelihood estimation? Well, that is a good question, and if I am honest, even though I took plenty…
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Value at Risk (VaR) to Determine Emergency Fund Size
The idea here is that by doing good bookkeeping you have good data that you can use to analyze your financial life. Specifically, we look at how big your emergency fund ought to be.
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Why I’m Not Going To Take the Corona Virus Vaccine And You Shouldn’t Either!
As it is still 2020, and the COVID-19 Pandemic is still raging as I type this I wanted to write an article, there is much talk about looking for a vaccine. Let me put my click-baity title to rest right off the bat. I think that we should develop a vaccine, and that I, personally,…
