Blog

  • US Economic Outlook 2025

    With the 2024 election in the rear view mirror, we have a better picture of what policy for the next few years is going to look like. As such, we have a better idea on what to expect from the US economy over the next few years. That has largely colored my analysis this year.…

  • Scaling Safely: Model Governance at Growth Stage

    When you’re small, model governance feels like paperwork. When you’re growing, it’s survival. As volumes rise, partnerships multiply, and product tweaks hit production weekly, the surface area for model risk explodes—data drift, code regressions, explainability gaps, and partner bank questions that eat whole quarters. U.S. supervisors define “model risk” broadly—any quantitative method that informs decisions…

  • Balancing Innovation and Risk in Fintech

    1) Fintech’s superpower—and its Achilles’ heel Fintechs win by shipping: A/B tests, agile launches, and model-powered everything—from underwriting to fraud controls to LTV forecasting. The gotcha is that each model creates an obligation: to understand its limits, monitor its behavior in the wild, and prove to regulators (and your board) that you’re doing both. That…

  • Step-by-Step Guide to Your First Independent Model Validation

    1) Quick intro — why get an independent validator? You’ve built something useful: a scoring model, propensity model, fraud classifier, pricing engine, or underwrite model. Independent validation isn’t just for regulated banks — it’s the single best way to surface blind spots before a partner bank, investor, or regulator asks tough questions. Validators look for…

  • Validating Models with Limited Data

    Why validating with limited data is a real problem for fintechs Early-stage fintechs routinely face the same tension: the product and decision problem are real, but labeled examples are scarce. That scarcity creates two statistical headaches: Those are not opinions — they’re why resampling and uncertainty quantification exist in the first place. The bootstrap and…

  • 3 Ways to Detect Model Drift — Before It’s Too Late

    You launched a model that beat the benchmarks. Then approval rates shift, manual review queues spike, or fraud slips through. That’s model drift — and in fintech it’s not just an ML problem; it’s a business, customer, and regulatory problem. Below I quickly define the types of drift, then give three practical, complementary ways to…

  • Validating Machine Learning Models in Fintech

    Machine learning (ML) is rapidly moving from R&D notebooks into production decision systems across fintech — underwriting, fraud detection, credit scoring, pricing, customer onboarding, and more. That’s great: ML can unlock better risk segmentation, speed, and personalization. But with that upside comes concentrated operational, legal, and reputational risk: a model that breaks, drifts, or discriminates…

  • How We Stress Test Credit Models

    If you build credit decisioning models for a fintech, you know the scorecard moment: a bank partner, compliance officer, or auditor asks for evidence, and suddenly your model has to survive not only production traffic but regulatory scrutiny. Independent model validation is not just a compliance checkbox. Done well, it turns risk controls into a…

  • The Role of Independent Model Validation for Fintechs Dealing with TPRM Teams

    Introduction In the dynamic world of fintech, partnerships with banks and financial institutions are essential for scaling innovative solutions. However, these collaborations introduce complexities, especially concerning third-party risk management (TPRM). Banks are increasingly scrutinizing the models provided by fintech vendors, necessitating robust independent model validation to ensure compliance, mitigate risks, and build trust. Understanding Third-Party…

  • How to Survive a Bank Partner’s Model Review

    If your fintech depends on bank partners to offer deposit rails, underwriting capital, or other regulated plumbing, a model review from that partner is not a performance review — it is a credibility and business-continuity test. Banks are accountable to regulators for models that materially affect safety and soundness, so when they review a third-party…

  • Independent Validation vs. Internal QA: What’s the Difference?

    Independent Model Validation (IMV) is an objective, external (or organizationally independent) assessment focused on whether a model is conceptually sound, implemented correctly, and fit for its intended use. Internal QA is an essential, day-to-day quality and engineering practice that keeps models working and reproducible. One ensures correctness and code hygiene; the other is the required…