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US Economic Outlook 2025
With the 2024 election in the rear view mirror, we have a better picture of what policy for the next few years is going to look like. As such, we have a better idea on what to expect from the US economy over the next few years. That has largely colored my analysis this year.…
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Box-Cox Transforms and Other Nonparametric Normalization Methods
So that is a bit of a snarky title. Today, I want to talk about techniques that you can use to transform non-normal data into a distribution that makes way more sense. This can be useful for all kinds of analysis like time-series I deal with non-normal data a lot. In fact, I’ve come to…
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Publishing a Bokeh App to Heroku
This is the last of three posts. In the first post we did some really fun Bayesian modeling. Specifically, we built a longitudinal or panel data model using a Bayesian model with fixed effects for states and time. And what we found was that increasing the cigarette tax would decrease health care expenditures in a…
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Christmas Give Away Winner
My first order of business is to announce the winner of my Christmas giveaway. This past Christmas, I was running a giveaway for some free time to spend with me for some data science coaching and a fifty dollar gift card. I want to say thank you to everyone that participated. It was awesome. I…
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Creating an Interactive Visualization With Bokeh
Last post, I created a model that would predict what effect changing the taxes on cigarettes would have on health care expenditures. That model was fun to build, but it is difficult to get a feel for what is going on. Even though it is a relatively simple model. Humans tend to be fairly visual…
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Bayesian Panel Data Cigarette Tax Analysis
Cigarette Taxes TL;DR Raising the cigarette tax by one cent in every state will save us about $1 billion per year. In the grand scheme of health care costs, it isn’t that much money. So with this post, I wanted to get back to my roots as an economist. I decided that I wanted to…
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Christmas Give Away
Guess what? I’m giving away an hour of data science coaching and a $50 gift card for Christmas this year. That’s right, ho ho ho! Merry Christmas! On every page on the website you will see a nice little opt in form. If you enter your email address, you get one entry, and for every…
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Why I am Offering Coaching Sessions
Why Coaching Usually I post a tutorial about a data science topic, sometimes I write a post about something a little bit more meta about data science like how to get started as a new comer, on occasion I’ll recommend some books that I’ve read. Today is something different. I want to introduce you to…
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Logistic Regression in R
Logistic regression was like magic the first time that I saw it. I grasped the utility almost immediately, but then I was shown how to hang economic theory on top of logistic regression and my face melted! Then I learned about the assumptions in logistic regression that no one seems to talk about like the…
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Bayesian Auto-Regressive Time Series Analysis in PYMC3
I have written a lot of blog posts on using PYMC3 to do bayesian analysis. And I have a few where I have even dealt with Time-Series datasets. To name a one, I have done one on time varying coefficients. In this post, I want to explore a really simple model, but it is one…
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3 Books that I Recommend to Learn Machine Learning
Today, I’m going to take a simple approach to the blog post. I’m working on some other things so, I need to scale this one back. So I’m going to give you 3 books that I recommend to learn general machine learning. I think that these books have been influential to the way that I…