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US Economic Outlook 2025
With the 2024 election in the rear view mirror, we have a better picture of what policy for the next few years is going to look like. As such, we have a better idea on what to expect from the US economy over the next few years. That has largely colored my analysis this year.…
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Choosing a Model Validator
If your fintech is running credit scoring, anti-fraud, pricing, or capital models — or plans to — you already know models aren’t “one-and-done.” Regulators expect rigorous governance, investors expect defensible outputs, and your product team expects the model to actually work in the real world. Picking the right independent model validator is one of the…
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Naughty or Nice? A Christmas Guide to Model Risk Management
As the year winds down and the holidays take center stage, it’s worth asking: if Santa ran a financial institution, how would his models hold up under regulatory scrutiny? Would his algorithms for tracking who’s naughty or nice pass a supervisory review—or would they land on the regulators’ naughty list? Let’s unwrap a Christmas-themed guide…
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The Future of Model Risk Management
Executive summary — in a sentence: model risk management is moving from periodic validation and paper-file audits to continuous, engineering-grade risk controls that combine governance, observability, and specialized validation for AI/ML. For fintechs and the banks that partner with them, this means building systems and teams that can detect model failures in production, assess new…
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Scaling Safely: Model Governance at Growth Stage
When you’re small, model governance feels like paperwork. When you’re growing, it’s survival. As volumes rise, partnerships multiply, and product tweaks hit production weekly, the surface area for model risk explodes—data drift, code regressions, explainability gaps, and partner bank questions that eat whole quarters. U.S. supervisors define “model risk” broadly—any quantitative method that informs decisions…
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Balancing Innovation and Risk in Fintech
1) Fintech’s superpower—and its Achilles’ heel Fintechs win by shipping: A/B tests, agile launches, and model-powered everything—from underwriting to fraud controls to LTV forecasting. The gotcha is that each model creates an obligation: to understand its limits, monitor its behavior in the wild, and prove to regulators (and your board) that you’re doing both. That…
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Step-by-Step Guide to Your First Independent Model Validation
1) Quick intro — why get an independent validator? You’ve built something useful: a scoring model, propensity model, fraud classifier, pricing engine, or underwrite model. Independent validation isn’t just for regulated banks — it’s the single best way to surface blind spots before a partner bank, investor, or regulator asks tough questions. Validators look for…
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Validating Models with Limited Data
Why validating with limited data is a real problem for fintechs Early-stage fintechs routinely face the same tension: the product and decision problem are real, but labeled examples are scarce. That scarcity creates two statistical headaches: Those are not opinions — they’re why resampling and uncertainty quantification exist in the first place. The bootstrap and…
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3 Ways to Detect Model Drift — Before It’s Too Late
You launched a model that beat the benchmarks. Then approval rates shift, manual review queues spike, or fraud slips through. That’s model drift — and in fintech it’s not just an ML problem; it’s a business, customer, and regulatory problem. Below I quickly define the types of drift, then give three practical, complementary ways to…
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Validating Machine Learning Models in Fintech
Machine learning (ML) is rapidly moving from R&D notebooks into production decision systems across fintech — underwriting, fraud detection, credit scoring, pricing, customer onboarding, and more. That’s great: ML can unlock better risk segmentation, speed, and personalization. But with that upside comes concentrated operational, legal, and reputational risk: a model that breaks, drifts, or discriminates…
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How We Stress Test Credit Models
If you build credit decisioning models for a fintech, you know the scorecard moment: a bank partner, compliance officer, or auditor asks for evidence, and suddenly your model has to survive not only production traffic but regulatory scrutiny. Independent model validation is not just a compliance checkbox. Done well, it turns risk controls into a…